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Desastres naturales han afectado alguna vez a 68% de mexicanos

Fecha: 
Mar, 2014-02-11

Vulnerables a fenómenos climáticos, 57% de municipios del país, alerta borrador del PECC

Prevé aumento de zonas secas en el territorio, pérdida de especies e impactos económicos

Reducir la población vulnerable y conservar ecosistemas, entre los objetivos del programa

Angélica Enciso L.
 
Periódico La Jornada
Martes 11 de febrero de 2014, p. 32

El 68 por ciento de los mexicanos han resultado afectados alguna vez por desastres naturales, población que coincide con la que vive en pobreza y extrema pobreza, que reside en viviendas precarias y zonas de alto riesgo como laderas de montañas, barrancas o márgenes de los ríos.

Además, mil 385 municipios están en riesgo por los eventos climáticos, y de ellos 319 son altamente vulnerables, advierte el borrador del Programa Especial de Cambio Climático (PECC) 2013-2018.

En el documento del programa, que se debe establecer por mandato de la Ley General de Cambio Climático, se presenta un diagnóstico sobre los impactos de este fenómeno en el país, en el que se destaca que en los próximos años se espera un aumento de zonas secas en el territorio, pérdida de especies e impactos económicos.

Precisa que sólo los fenómenos hidrometeorológicos han elevado el costo de los daños, pues pasaron de un promedio anual de 730 millones de pesos en el periodo de 1980 a 1999 a 21 mil 950 millones para el periodo 2000-2012.

Precisa que, de los 2 mil 440 municipios que hay en el país, se identificaron mil 385 como vulnerables a sucesos climáticos como inundaciones, deslaves, sequías agrícolas, disminución de rendimientos por precipitación y temperatura, ondas de calor y transmisión de enfermedades. Apunta que el Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático identificó a 13 por ciento de los municipios del país (319) como de muy alta y alta vulnerabilidad ante el cambio climático. De éstos, Chiapas tiene 24, Veracruz 20, Yucatán 17, estado de México 19, y Guerrero, Chihuahua e Hidalgo tienen 15 cada uno.

Menos productividad en maíz

El borrador del documento que está a consulta indica que entre los impactos del cambio climático en sectores prioritarios están que para 2050 en la agricultura habrá pérdida de productividad de maíz; la mayor parte del país se volverá más árida y las se- quías serán más frecuentes, con un aumento en la demanda de agua en el norte del país y en zonas urbanas.

En contraste se elevará el riesgo de inundaciones para alrededor de dos millones de personas que viven en zonas vulnerables y en localidades menores de 5 mil habitantes que se ubican en la parte baja de las cuencas.

Además, el aumento del nivel del mar representará un peligro para los sectores residencial y de infraestructura asentados en las zonas costeras; asimismo se espera una reducción del área cubierta de bosques de coníferas, especies de zonas áridas, semiáridas y especies forestales de zonas templadas.

Agrega que el aumento de la temperatura en el mar ocasionaría un colapso demográfico de especies. En cuanto a mamíferos terrestres y aves, proyecta que para 2050 habrá reducción de alrededor de la mitad de las especies estudiadas, y perderán más de 80 por ciento de su área de distribución.

Hasta ahora, explica, las temperaturas promedio a escala nacional se han elevado en 0.85 grados centígrados, lo cual coincide con el incremento global reportado por el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático (IPCC). Las temperaturas invernales se elevaron en 1.3 grados, han disminuido los días más frescos y han aumentado las noches cálidas.

Sumadas a lo anterior, las precipitaciones pluviales han bajado en el sureste del país desde hace medio siglo, y las temperaturas han aumentado en forma diferenciada por región, siendo el norte del país la zona con mayor incremento.

Refiere que en las zonas urbanas en las próximas décadas los espacios operarán en condiciones climáticas distintas, por lo que se deben incluir criterios de cambio climático en el diseño y la construcción, para contar con mayor resistencia de la infraestructura y zonas seguras para la población ante condiciones de clima distintas a las actuales.

Los objetivos que plantea el borrador son reducir la vulnerabilidad de la población, conservar y manejar sustentablemente los ecosistemas, reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, bajar emisiones de contaminantes climáticos de vida corta –como el hollín– y consolidar la política nacional de cambio climático con instrumentos eficaces en todos los niveles de gobierno.